Unraveling the Mystery of a Skyrocketing Break Rate with Data-Driven Watermain Break Analytics

The City of Huber Heights, OH, operates a water distribution system comprising 205 miles of predominantly cast iron and ductile iron pipe. While their system was already experiencing a relatively high break rate before 2019, the break rate from 2019 through 2021 doubled the prior 10 years. The City needed to kw why. Using the GIS pipe attribute data and break database and leading-edge failure forecasting software that predicts break rates, the City tested their theories about possible causes of the spike in breaks, and the answers surprised them. Using robust analytical tools that allowed for significant interaction allowed the answers to be obtained. The proactive water main replacement strategy recommended after the analytics were complete is expected to significantly reduce breaks and the associated impacts, providing customers with a more reliable supply of drinking water. Through the ability to customize the analysis in the break prediction software and GIS, recommendations regarding the operation of the distribution system and treatment plant to better control finished water quality and pressures were possible, and the break rate is already declining without any pipe replacement. The information presented in this session applies to every water system in the US and abroad, regardless of the analytical software they choose. The benefits of replacing the right pipes at the right time will result in significant cost avoidance and better service (fewer interruptions) to customers. After this session, participants will be able to:
• Determine which factors most commonly influence water main break rates and how to better collect and manage the “right data” to allow for accurate break prediction.
• Explain the cost, efficiency, and accuracy advantages of predictive analytical methods compared to traditional multicriteria analysis (1 to 5 scoring systems to rate pipe risks).
• Determine the appropriate level of investment for proactive water main replacement, as well as the “right” pipes to prioritize for replacement.